Climate Change Mitigation by Reducing CO2 – Blog Action Day 2009
There will Definitely Be a Lot of CO2 Generated for Energy Production for Decades
There will be plenty of natural gas and coal for many decades to centuries. Unconventional natural gas and underground coal gasification are likely to provide affordable fossil fuel for a long time. The THAI (Toe Heel Air Injection) oil recovery process and Multi-fracture horizontal drilling will ensure more supplies of regular oil. Civilization will continue to generate a lot of CO2. 30 billion tons per year of CO2 now and likely to increase. In the IEO2009 (International energy outlook) reference case, world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions grows from 29.0 billion metric tons in 2006 to 33.1 billion metric tons in 2015.
Besides Reducing CO2, Other Mitigation Steps Can be Taken
BC (Black Carbon or soot) is an aerosol and is among the particle components emitted from the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and biomass. Particulates from coal and diesel also cause about a millions of premature deaths each year. BC is estimated to be the second or third largest warming agent, although there is uncertainty in determining its precise radiative forcing. BC can be reduced
by approximately 50% with full application of existing technologies by 2030, primarily from reducing diesel emissions and improving cook stoves. Wallack and Ramanathan estimate that it may be possible to offset the warming effect from one to two decades of CO2 emissions by reducing BC by 50% using existing technologies
In 2000, there were 6800 container ships in the world. At the cold war peak the Soviets had or had almost built about 400 nuclear powered ships and the USA had over 200. One large container pollutes as much as 50 million cars.
Converting all commercial shipping to nuclear power would be a more logistically achievable goal than electrifying all cars. Commercial shipping releases half as much particulates as all of the worlds cars.
Carbon Sequesteration is Expensive and Would Take Decades to Have a Major Impact
Carbon sequestration is at a few million tons per year now. Canada is planning a $2 billion/year project to sequester 5 million tons of CO2 per year by 2015 and then a $3 billion/year project to sequester 30 million tons of CO2 per year. $400 per ton down to $100 per ton sequestered each year. Norway is planning to get carbon neutral by sequestering 50 million tons per year by 2020. MIT wrote a study that sequestering the CO2 generated from coal plants in the USA by 2050 would take 11,000 to 23,000 miles of dedicated pipe.
The technology for removing CO2 from the atmosphere is improving.
Carbon sciences and companies like it could recycle a lot of the CO2 directly into fuel. Recycled CO2 could displace fresh CO2 from fossil fuels that are taken from the ground. CO2 fuel will also take a long time to scale up to significant levels.
How Can We have a Significant Impact on CO2 Over the Next Ten Years and Beyond?
The Gigaton Throwdown is an initiative to encourage investors, entrepreneurs, business leaders, and policy makers to “think big” to massively scale clean energy during the next 10 years.
The USA avoids 700 million tons of CO2 from the 800 billion kwh of nuclear power that are generated from standard nuclear plants.
1. A program to accelerate the research and development of annular fuel [ultra-uprates] (MIT, Westinghouse) to allow for 50% power increase to existing nuclear reactors with ultra-uprates. (beyond the traditional power uprates of up to 20%. This could be achieved with research budget allocation and policy changes to ensure prompt deployment. Full deployment in the United States would be avoid about 300 million tons of CO2/year. (30% boost to boiler water reactors.) Full deployment worldwide would avoid 1 billion tons of CO2/year.
Technology for CO2 capture from the air is progressing.
Carbon Sciences and others are trying to scale up CO2 conversion into fuel.
Carbon Sciences estimate that by 2030, using just 25% of the CO2 produced by the coal industry, they can produce enough fuel to satisfy 30% of the global fuel demand.
The company’s plan for 2009 includes the following:
* Develop a functional prototype of its breakthrough CO2 to fuel technology in Q1 2009. This prototype is expected to transform a stream of CO2 gas into a liquid fuel that is: (i) combustible, and (ii) usable in certain vehicles.
* Enhance the prototype to demonstrate a full range of cost effective process innovations to transform CO2 into fuel.
* Begin development of a complete mini-pilot system to demonstrate the company’s CO2 technology on a larger scale.
* Prepare for the development of a full pilot system with strategic partners sometime in late 2010 or 2011.
CO2-to-Carbonate technology combines CO2 with industrial waste minerals and transforms them into a high value chemical compound, calcium carbonate, used in applications such as paper production, pharmaceuticals and plastics. This is also bordering the various using CO2 as part of cement.
FURTHER READING
Geoengineering proposals compared.
Gigaton Throwdown
The Gigaton Throwdown, a project by Sunil Paul. Mr. Paul started the project under the auspices of the Clinton Global Initiative on Stabilizing the Climate. He organized a fairly large group of venture capital companies, some from the renewable energy sector, and some academic and think tank policy analysts, all concerned about climate change and the need for dramatic action to mitigate such change.
The Gigaton Throwdown defined, briefly:
“The Gigaton Throwdown, launched in 2007 at the Clinton Global Initiative by Sunil Paul, is a project to encourage entrepreneurs, investors and policy makers to plan to grow companies to a scale that they change the climate. The project is evaluating a portfolio of cleantech pathways that could lead to 1 gigaton per year of CO2-equivalent reduction by 2020, and the implications for capital, policy, and industry. The pathways currently in analysis are solar PV, solar thermal, wind, biofuels, nuclear, geothermal, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, and buildings.”
The Gigaton Throwdown report was released June 24, 2009 in Washington DC.
For more background data and analyses behind the final report.
For more background on the Clinton Global Initiative at which the Gigaton Throwdown was launched.
You will note that Dr. John Holdren, Science Advisor to President Obama, was a lead participant in this particular Clinton Global Initiative meeting.
McKinsey consulting had a plan and an analysis of ways to avoid CO2.
1. Energy efficiency in buildings and appliances (710-870 megatons of carbon)
2. More fuel efficient vehicles (340-660 megatons of carbon)
3. Industrial efficiency (620-770 megatons)
4. Bigger carbon sinks (like more forest) (440-580 megatons)
5. Less carbon intensive power generation (800-1570 megatons)
This last one is more nuclear power and renewables and cleaning up coal.
